A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
