Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Fall 37% In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The typical number of daily murders each month in the country has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that homicide numbers might not indicate improved countrywide security.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these past months is very notable,” the President said, noting that the previous month the least number of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce cartel infighting, combined with the administration's highly military efforts to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety researchers urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is notably true given the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the desire to properly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it could hide periods when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst remarked.