Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The average number of everyday homicides monthly in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new administrative data. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that homicide data could fail to signal improved national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had during these past months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s highly military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than 4x greater than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, security experts urged caution that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is especially true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it could hide days when there were especially spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the country to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to create a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.